3 Measures to mitigate the environmental hazards awaiting the coming generations by 2050
—Issued in the public interest—
Experts may kindly help improve the presentation with improved data and calculations in Excel and forward the same.
Dedicated to
His Majesty the King of Bhutan,
Jigme Singye Wangchuck, a visionary, who has
shown the rest of the world what is possible in
the face of the all-around vandalization of the world environment.
His Majesty had ushered in the concept of
Gross National Happiness for His people in
the place of Gross Domestic Product.
Bhutan is the only carbon-negative nation in the world.
Contents
Chapter-1: Individuals are Personally Responsible
Chapter-2: Environmental scenario of our and the neighboring planets
Chapter-3: Data on Earth from: David Attenborough’s A Life on Our Planet (Netflix)
Chapter-4: Three measures to restore the Earth environment by 2050
Chapter-5: 1st Measure: Gift a slice of the Good Earth: A no-cash-transfer Annual $ 20 trillion Awareness Drive
Chapter-6: 2nd Measure: Adopt two new thermodynamic units of measure
Chapter-7: Entropy footprint: Entropy signatures in Exoplanets and entropy footprint on the Earth
Chapter-8: Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit
Chapter-9: 3rd Measure: Supply chains for metal parts in CKD mode from space
Chapter-10: GHG pollution-thermal pollution tradeoff in Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
Chapter-11: An ‘Adequate World Population’ (AWP) of two billion
Chapter-12: Diversion of cultural momenta from destructive to restorative practices
Annexes
Annex-ONE: A $ 20 trillion per annum, No-Cash-Transaction Annual Awareness Drive
Annex-TWO: Sources of data and calculations towards individual responsibilities: Ice melt, CO2 emission, Radiative Forcing
Annex-THREE: Relating disorders to entropies mathematically
Annex-FOUR: Cultural Momentum: A mathematical approach
Annex-FIVE:
Part 1: Learn and spread knowledge
Part 2: Activities for the general public to reduce heat pollution (LHI)
Chapter 1
Individuals are personally responsible
Glossary
- ‘Biosphere’ and ‘Environment’ are interchangeably used
- ‘Polar ice’ includes Greenland and glacier ice
- ‘Engineer’ includes all applied scientists and applied
mathematicians - GHG: Green House Gases
- RF: Radiative Forcing)
- AHF: Anthropogenic Heat Forcing
- LHI: Local Heat Islands
- CHZ: Circumstellar Habitable Zone
- BAU: Business As Usual <here, for Business of life As Usual>
- CKD: Completely Knocked Down
- MER: Money Exchange Ratio: (viz. INR 75 per USD)
- PPP: Power of Purchase Parity (viz. INR 22 per USD)
- HABE: Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent = 63 terajoules <proposed as a non-SI unit of ‘heat’, for use with heat pollution of the biosphere carrying the visual impact of atom bomb>
- Bz (Boltzmann) = J/K (i.e., joule/kelvin) <proposed as a SI unit for ‘entropy’ as there is yet no unique unit for entropy though entropy is a measurable scientific concept nearest to disorders>
The average individual is contributing the following thermal and CO2 (GHG) pollutions to the environment:
- For every USD spent today anywhere, 0.4 tonne of ice melts at the poles and glaciers; also 0.4 kg CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere for each USD; note, in PPP mode, refer www.worldbank.org, 2021, 1 USD equals: 1.29 CAD or 2.46 AUD or 22.0 INR (India) or 96.76 YEN (Japan) in MER mode, 2022, each USD equals 0.95 Euro
- More than 4 tons of CO2 was emitted into the atmosphere in the year 2020 on behalf of the average individual
- 200 kW of heat is raining down because of Radiative Forcing (RF) from the tropopause, 10 km above the Earth’s surface on behalf of the average individual. (Think of a 200 kW heater overhead instead of an 80 W ceiling fan!)
In a year’s time, this heat amounts to little more than 10% of the heat content of the Hiroshima atom bomb! (i.e., in approximately 10 years this is an entire atom bomb on behalf of the average individual!
<Please see Annex-TWO>
To repeat: It is no more profitable for the individual to blame the corporates, organizations, and governments for inadequate action leading to still exponentially rising environmental disorders. One must take matters into one’s own hands, make efforts to keep oneself informed about the environment and the trends of the disorders, and initiate corrective action.
Conversions
- Kilo = 1000 <three zeros>
- Mega = 1000,000 <six zeros>
- Giga = 1000,000,000 <nine zeros>
- Tera = 1000,000,000,000 <twelve zeros>
Main assumption in this presentation
We assume that anthropogenic CO2 is the driver of global climate and the major cause of environmental degradation.
Today more than 1000 tons of CO2 is emitted every second from anthropogenic activities. <CO2 Emissions – worldometers.info>
Please note, however, there are other compelling and competing viewpoints regarding climate drivers like: Desertification of lands spread over different continents.
<How to green the world’s deserts and reverse climate change | Allan Savory A, YouTube; A must-see for everyone.> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpTHi7O66pI&t=6s
Silver
Slowly, silently, now the moon
Walks the night
In her silver shoon;
This way, and that, she peers, and sees
Silver fruit upon silver trees;
One by one the casements catch
Her beams beneath the silver thatch;
Couched in his kennel, like a log,
With paws of silver sleeps the dog;
From their shadowy cote the white breasts peep
Of doves in a silver feathered- sleep;
A harvest mouse goes scampering by,
With silver claws and a silver eye;
And moveless fish in the water gleam,
By silver reeds in a silver stream.
– Walter de la Mare
Chapter 2
The environmental scenario of our and the neighboring planets
Three planets in the Sun’s CHZ (Circumstellar Habitable Zone or Goldilocks Zone)
What is Circumstellar Habitable Zone (CHZ) or Goldilocks Zone:
The habitable zone is the area around a star where it is not too hot and not too cold for liquid water to exist on the surface of surrounding planets. <exoplanets.nasa.gov/faq/15/what-is-the-habitable-zone-or-goldilocks-zone/>
Around the Sun, our star, we have three planets in the Circumstellar Habitable Zone (CHZ): 1st: Venus, 2nd: the Earth, and 3rd: Mars. These three planetary conditions are described below.
These three planetary conditions are described below:
1st planet,
Venus, in the solar CHZ
No evidence of life, DEAD planet:
Venus is the first planet in the habitable zone around Sun.
The Runaway greenhouse effect on Venus a billion years ago made it uninhabitable.
What is the greenhouse effect:
The greenhouse effect is a process that occurs when energy from a planet’s host star goes through its atmosphere and warms the planet’s surface, but the atmosphere prevents the heat from returning directly to space, resulting in a warmer planet.
<en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect>
What is the runaway greenhouse effect:
A runaway greenhouse effect occurs when a planet’s atmosphere contains greenhouse gas in an amount sufficient to block thermal radiation from leaving the planet, preventing the planet from cooling and from having liquid water on its surface.
<en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_greenhouse_effect>
2nd planet,
Our Earth. in the solar CHZ
The only known body in the cosmos with life.
Earth is a sphere, some twelve thousand kilometers across, hurtling through space nearly three million kilometers a day, complete with a fragile but adequate life-supporting system that we are doing everything to destroy. <www.energyintegral.com>
The concentration of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere:
The concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is currently at nearly 412 parts per million (ppm) and rising. This represents a 47% increase since the beginning of the industrial age when the concentration was near 280 ppm. <climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/>.
Also refer to https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/biodiversity/decline-and-extinction/.
3rd planet, Mars, in the solar CHZ
- No evidence of life, a DEAD planet
- Mars is the third planet in the habitable zone around our Sun (Circumstellar Habitable Zone, CHZ, Goldilocks Zone), half the size of the Earth by diameter
- Atmospheric on Mars is less than 1% of the Earth by volume, 0.01 atm pressure at the surface, has, 96% CO2 , with a mean surface temperature of (-) 60 °C
Which of the three planets you would love to gift to your grandchildren by 2050?
Gift the Good Earth to your grandchildren in a better condition than you received it when you were born.
Chapter 3
Data on disorders from
David Attenborough’s A Life on Our Planet (Netflix)
Internet is perhaps the greatest blessing for mankind for the spread of awareness, the light that may yet dispel the shadow of the darkness cast on our survival in good time. This is perhaps, literally, the saving grace from technology.
David Attenborough’s documentary on Netflix, ‘A Life on Our Planet’ presents the following important statistics on the state of our planet Earth:
| Year | Population | CO2 in the Atmosphere | Wilderness left |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1937 | 2.3 billion | 280 ppm | 66 % |
| 1960 | 3.0 billion | 315 ppm | 62 % |
| 1978 | 4.3 billion | 335 ppm | 55 % |
| 1997 | 5.9 billion | 360 ppm | 46 % |
| 2020 | 7.8 billion | 415 ppm | 35 % |
A law for limited planet resources:
No matter how large, no limited natural resource of a planet can withstand an exponentially increasing demand on it for any great length of time.
(Engineers, scientists, and mathematicians familiar with the exponential function shall find the above statement of the law quite rudimentary.)
One may make a habit of visiting from time to time the following websites for details on CO2 emissions, population, etc. over the last several decades:
- Wikipedia
- climate.nasa.gov
- statista.com
- egusphere.copernicus.org
- ourworldindata.org
- theworldcounts.com
The author expresses great pleasure in acknowledging the use of knowledge and information available in these portals.
One must exert to learn about the environment for the sake of one’s children and grandchildren. Responsible parents and grandparents cannot afford to leave the fate of their coming generations in anyone else’s hands. Going on the basis of the exponentially increasing disorders, others are not just quite effective.
Attenborough says at 54:19 minutes in his documentary: “We would keep consuming the earth until we had used it up. Also, at 48:21 minutes, he says: No ecosystem, no matter how big, is secure.”
Chapter 4
Three measures to restore the Earth’s environment by 2050
The basis for confidence for the three measures to succeed:
Earth’s natural environment has great resilience to recover health given a chance. This has been seen in recent times:
- Covid-19 showed us that a modest 25% reduction in the world economy is enough for the recovery of the health of the natural environmental
- Chernobyl experience has shown that 30 years’ time is adequate for recovery of the health of a local environment
Three measures to restore the Earth’s environment by 2050:
The three measures are elaborated in the following chapters:
- Chapter-5: 1st Measure: Gift a slice of the Good Earth: A no-cash-transfer $20 trillion Annual Awareness Drive
- Chapter-6: 2nd Measure: Two new thermodynamic units of measure
- Chapter-9: 3rd Measure: Supply chain for metal parts in CKD mode
Chapter 5
First Measure:
Gift a slice of the Good Earth: A no-cash-transfer Annual $ 20 trillion Awareness Drive:
- Today the world GDP is a little more than 80 trillion USD. We may consider a fourth, i.e., an annual $ 20 trillion USD to be an adequate goal for the Awareness Drive.
- No-cash-transfer Awareness Drive worth 20 trillion USD.
- Each hour can be gifted to only one person.
- There shall be no actual money transactions. Only gift cards, either hand made or copied electronically, not printed, to be given to the loved ones, subject to the condition that one has not received any remuneration for the effort. Please see some examples given below:
- <Please see Annex-ONE>
Texting should also serve equally.
Texting should also serve equally.
Please add your own endearing words and text your near and dear ones. Count the hours spent on reading this very document itself. Also count hours spent in preparing translations from this document in to your regional language and publishing articles. Please take care to enlist assistances of a linguist and an environmentalist locally available to you.
Chapter 6
Second Measure:
Two new thermodynamic units of measure
<Pre-requisite: Thermodynamics>
The time has come for every one of us to learn such details from the internet. Like we learn about blood pressure or sugar levels in the blood. Like good and bad fat in food. Many of us help children with their homework which is quite difficult. Now we have to learn about heat pollution of the biosphere for which we are, as consumers, individually responsible. This is harmful to our children and grandchildren. Perhaps only 30 years are, now, available to correct the situation.
Heat
HABE ≡ 63 terajoule (TJ), a non-SI unit
(for the environment)
and
Entropy
boltzmann (Bz) ≡ joule /kelvin (J/K), as an SI unit
SI units like the joule or the non-SI unit of the calorie or their larger versions (kilo, mega, giga, tera, etc., see Glossary) do not bring out the true horror of the heat and entropy pollution we cause to the environment.
The current situation and need for the new units
Because of the greenhouse gases, some 50,000,000,000 terajoules of heat is raining down upon the Earth every year (2020), i.e., more than 1,600 terajoules from the sky (tropopause) every second as Radiative Forcing (RF).
We are, thus, individually responsible for, on average, more than 6 terajoules of heat raining down upon the Earth every year.
This is more than 200,000 joules/second of heat, i.e., more than 200 kW of heat is raining down upon the earth because of each one of us on average because of RF!
Do you expect global temperatures not to increase further? And be comfortable??
- RF (Radiative Forcing) = 3.183 W/m2 in the year 2020
<Radiative Forcing 1979 – 2020 (W/m2);
NOAA https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html >
A planet in radiative equilibrium with its parent star and the rest of space can be characterized by net-zero radiative forcing and by a planetary equilibrium temperature… Forgings are expressed as changes over the total surface of the planet… (Wikipedia) - Earth surface area = 510,064,472,000,000 m2.
Multiplying RF and Earth’s surface together, we receive, more than 1,600 terawatts (i.e., terajoules/second) of heat from the sky.
A more picturesque way of saying the same thing
There is a more picturesque and effective way of saying the same thing if we adopt the new unit,
1 HABE ≡ 63 terajoules, read as Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent, as a unit of heat (non-SI).
Instead of the above statement using the unit of terajoules, we may describe the same facts picturesquely as: “Because of greenhouse gases, now, more than 600,000,000 HABE (Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent) of heat is raining down upon the Earth every year from the sky (tropopause).
We are, thus, individually responsible for, on average, 0.1 i.e., 10% of HABE (Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent) of heat raining down upon the Earth’s surface from the sky (tropopause) per year (2020).” This way of expressing heat pollution of the biosphere makes great sense if expressed in terms of the Hiroshima atom bomb (confining to only the heat content, without reference to radiation or blast effects).
Impact of expenditure that could be avoided
Expenditure of a million US$ anywhere on the Earth implies nearly 8 HABE heat pollution to the biosphere. A billion US$ expenditure causes nearly 8000 HABE (Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent) of heat added to the biosphere from RF alone. Heat pollution from AHF is additional.
Planes, warships, and palatial homes come at too great a cost to the future of our children and grandchildren, to be bitterly felt by them by the year 2050.
For currencies other than the USD, convert the expenditures using the PPP (Purchase Power Parity) mode published by the World Bank as we are concerned here with the consumption of material goods and services. MER (Money Exchange Ratio), the other mode of conversion of currencies, is not the correct mode to use here.
The two new proposed new units in thermodynamics
Heat
Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent, HABE ≡ 63 terajoule for heat (as a non-SI unit),
to describe the heat contributions to the environment in terms of the Hiroshima Atom Bomb, a modern symbol of destruction),
and,
Entropy
Entropy is emphasized in this presentation as it is conceptually nearer to disorder than heat is.
Entropy shall provide an important single parameter to express all different disorders in the biosphere including AHF and RF (GHG) pollution.
A long overdue assignment of an SI unit for entropy. It is suggested to be named after Ludwig Boltzmann:
boltzmann (Bz) ≡ joule /kelvin (J/K) , as an SI unit.
This shall be an appropriate unit to relate various disorders ΔDj to the entropies ΔSk added to the environment from heat from anthropogenic activities.
<Please see Annex-THREE>
‘Green’ energy: Nuclear power plants A 1000 MWe nuclear power plant directly pollutes the environment with 2000 MW, i.e., 2000 megajoule of rejected heat every second (MW ≡ MJ/second).
(GHG including CO2, however, is not contributed by nuclear power.)
The importance of entropy as a single parameter to describe environmental disorders
The importance of a single parameter, like the entropy, expressing different environmental disorders, cannot be over-emphasized.
All heat polluters shall be treated as equally responsible on the single uniform basis of entropy.
No exceptions shall be possible under the label of ‘green’ energy, including nuclear energy which contributes significant quantities of heat pollution through AHF though it does not contribute to RF through GHGs.
A shocking realization regarding negligence of application of entropy by engineers
Entropy is the main scientific concept relating to disorders. For most engineering assessments, the calculation of entropy is rudimentary <with a slight abuse of notation) simply equal to Q/T (joules/kelvin)>, better still: ΔS ≡ ΔQ/T:
ΔS ≡ ΔQ/T ,
i.e.,
Heat (Joule) dumped on the environment
÷ Temperature (Kelvin) of the environment
With shock, I realize after 36 years of experience in the industry that neither I nor my colleagues have ever estimated the change in entropy in the environment from proposed projects and other activities! Not once! Not even when developing energy conservation techniques! Not even by the consultants who prepared EIA (Environment Impact Analysis) reports. The lack of ‘entropy assessment and audit’ constitutes a harmful cultural momentum that needs to be corrected urgently.
<Please see Annex-FOUR>
During the last 7 decades engineers (applied scientists and mathematicians included), the major change agents on the Good Earth, created the magic of endless and unprecedented technologies. This blindsided the general public to the fact that the health of the environment is getting destroyed in the bargain at an exponential rate. Today, engineers are as bewildered as the general public. The enormity of the irreversible destruction is, now, suddenly looming large before the eyes of the general public as well as the engineers.
The real culprit is the deficiency in the curriculum of studies and in their professional applications of the concept of entropy, a two-century-old physics.
<We may notice here that this simple and useful concept of entropy, enormously useful for the survival of the species, has failed to percolate into the psyche of the general public, and, as a consequence, there are many misgivings about entropy in the minds of the engineers themselves. Many including engineers equate entropy with the disorder which is incorrect. Please see chapter 7>
Now there are just 30 years left to correct the terrible predicament. Now, we need two Earths right now to sustain our civilization: we are already consuming the Earth’s resources at twice the sustainable rate <www.theworldcounts.org>. By 2050, we shall need three Earths, i.e., ours + our children’s + grandchildren’s before the first non-return door closes behind humanity thus leading to the destruction of the earth as we know it and the future of our children and grandchildren: all Arctic ice will have melted in just a few decades from now.
Today, there is aggressive positive feedback between (i) environmental disorders and (ii) and proposals of unproven and complex technological panaceas. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR DISASTER. Awareness of entropy and disasters by individuals is the only protection.
Positive feedback systems are notoriously unstable. Positive feedback of the global warming process ruined all possibility of life on our nearest planet Venus, the twin sister of our planet Earth, heating up the atmosphere to 450 °C.
Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit of all engineering proposals and projects, ‘green’ or not, is a uniform and simple remedy. To reiterate, ‘all heat polluters, including the ‘green’, are to be subjected to Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit.
It is also strange to notice the failure of the scientific community to adopt a unique unit for entropy instead of making do with the ratio J/K . We have suggested Bz as a SI unit for entropy: Bz ≡ J/K , to coin in honor of the eminent Ludwig Boltzmann, father of statistical mechanics.
Please refer to Annex-FOUR for establishing new cultural trends, such as, now, the urgent adoption of a SI unit for entropy for the public purpose of relating to disorders of the environment.
Please see Annex-FOUR>
Not realizing these facts is an act of negligence which nature and her 2nd law of thermodynamics is not going to forgive us.
It bears repetition to say, the negligence of application of this single two-century-old well-known concept of entropy will go down in the history of mankind as the greatest blunder by professionals that brought the species to near (really? So forgiving!) extinction…
Chapter 7
Entropy footprint:
Entropy signatures in Exoplanets and entropy footprint on the Earth
<Pre-requisite: College level maths>
Entropy is not disorder
The terms entropy and disorder are often confused with one another. However, these are different things.
Entropy
(Q/T in simple terms, and ∫dS ≡ ∫δQ/T as an accurate, scientific term). (Temperatures are 273 + °C, i.e., in K, kelvins). The term disorder, used popularly, is, however, not a well-defined scientific term.
Consider a HEMM using Q joule to level a ground for making a children’s park. Another HEMM, from a rival party, also expends the same quantity of energy Q joule to destroy the prepared ground.
Disorder is NOT entropy
Entropies are the same in both cases, disorders, however, are different.
Entropy signatures from exoplanets
Detection of entropy signature is an approach to identify technically advanced civilizations amongst exoplanets. Remember, dS ≡ δQ/T : the entropy footprint shall increase with additional heat added to the biosphere and shall contribute to more disorders). We may also start to estimate the entropy footprint on the Earth to assess the state of our home planet.
Relating entropies and disorders on the planet
Entropy shall provide an important single parameter to express different disorders in the biosphere including thermal and GHG pollution. Every disorder Dj may be expressed as a function of entropy Sj :
Di = Di (Sj) ie, dDi ≡ (∂Di/∂Sj)dSj ≡ λij dSj where λij represents ∂Di/∂Sj . Relating bulk changes in disorders to bulk changes in entropies from year to year, we write,
ΔDi ≡ λij ΔSj where λij is ∂Di/∂Sj where j spans over several appropriate neighboring regions.
The advantages of a single measure like the entropy for expressing different types of disorders cannot be over-emphasized. The relative importance of different disorders shall be made clear at once from the magnitudes of their respective partial rates λij ≡ ∂Di/∂Sj . With a slight abuse of notation by ignoring the use of Δ, we may write:
<Please see Annex-THREE>
Chapter 8
Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit
Engineers applied scientists, and applied mathematicians are major agents of change for the Earth’s environment.
If we plot a cause and effect diagram including ‘engineer’ as an item in a list of all the anthropogenic disorders today, like global warming, deforestation, sea-level rise, etc., we will find that the ‘engineer’ is at the root cause of all these disorders.
And as has been told elsewhere, negligence of ‘entropy’ as a tool to assess and audit all engineering projects is the professional root cause behind all environmental disorders. The term ‘engineer’ is inclusive of all applied scientists and applied mathematicians.
All engineers applied scientists and applied mathematicians, irrespective of placement, must, hence, be required to undertake ‘Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit’ courses periodically. This should bring about a healthy turn of professional attitude.
A pledge for the Good Earth should be administered to all engineers applied scientists and applied mathematicians before awarding of professional qualifications. This pledge should, also, be reinforced periodically.
Chapter 9
3rd Measure:
Supply chains for metal parts in CKD mode from space.
The spaceship is our future vehicle. Not the bullock cart.
We are already space farers. We travel nearly three million kilometers every day with our space ship the Earth, a 12,000 km diameter sphere, in its orbit around the sun.
We cannot, and, should not, rewind the clock.
Starting with mining and mineral processing mankind may invest to establish supply chains for metal parts in CKD mode from space. To study if an allocation of an annual budget of 10 trillion USD per year should perhaps suffice.
This will help us leave the Good Earth alone for meditation, performing, and such other arts, fundamental sciences, and mathematics.
Space ship will act like a safety valve in a pressure cooker for releasing the pressure on the biosphere: releasing the passions of scientific explorers, commercial, and military adventurers, and others with fancy imperialistic ambitions, into space
Chapter 10
A technological panacea being proposed nowadays: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): involves a trade-off between GHG pollution and thermal pollution
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS), and especially the Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology seem to fly in the face of the second law of thermodynamics which relates to the concept of monotonously increasing entropy in an irreversible adiabatic system. We may justifiably consider the biosphere as a quasi-adiabatic system as the biosphere is more or less the same on a day-to-day basis.
Order from disorder is costly in terms of work, heat and entropy:
Example: Un-mixing milk from water: We know, it is easy to drop a milk in to water. But separating milk needs lot more energy. Let us see..
- Take 5 ml milk, weighing, say, 5 g, i.e., 0.005 kg <http://howmany.wiki>.
- Drop from 10 cm height, i.e., 0.1 m.
- Gravity: g ~ 10 m/s2 for simplicity. Multiplying, Energy = mgh = 0.005*10*0.1 = 0.005 joule.
Compare Vaporization of 0.005 kg of water at 100 deg C alone shall take 2260*0.005 ~ 11 joules, i.e., more than 2000 times more energy!!
Parasitic loading
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) equipment require 20-30% <Global CCS Institute co2-capture-technologies-pcc> additional electric power to function which is called parasitic loading. A 1000 MWe thermal power plant may require an additional 250 MW for operating the CCW installation. Originally the plant would dump 2000 MW of heat into the environment. Now, this shall be 2500 MW instead. An additional 500 MW of thermal pollution to the environment.
High water demand
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) may prove quite costly in terms of demand for the water resource. CCS technologies that envisage a large reduction in the use of freshwater may significantly add to capital costs.
CCS is limited only to CO2 capture, ignores the other GHGs
This is self-explanatory
Additional costs of CCS
Transportation, etc
CCS technology immediately adds ~40% to investment in plant and to unit of electricity and parasitical power for operating CCS.
Additional heat pollution is ~40% of the environment.
Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit of CCS proposals
Proponents of CCS projects should be mandated to submit comprehensive Entropy Impact Assessment and Audit reports predicting entropies and disorders up to the years 2050 and 2100.
It is important to consider total life cycle costs, including entropy footprints and corresponding disorders for all global-scope technological proposals.
One should not put all the eggs in one basket.
Various technologies in the past, like superconductivity for bulk power transmission, fusion, etc. have not proven their value in the last several decades. Life cycle costs of solar and wind power and electric vehicles to the environment are coming under sharper scrutiny.
Adverse practices like design obsolescence in the now traditional technologies plague the environment and are coming under sharper scrutiny and possible legal oversight
Another panacea being discussed in the media: ‘Hope of population collapse in near future’
As a counter to the above ‘collapse’, please watch, ‘DON’T PANIC’ in the YouTube, by Hans Rosling on future population.
Chapter 11
An ‘Adequate World Population’ (AWP) of two billion
A world population of two billion by 1950 had given us our airplanes, rockets, radio and television, computers, and special and general theories of relativity, and quantum physics. And had carried forward the rich arts, literature, philosophies, and mathematics of the earlier times.
Let us define a world population of two billion people as the Adequate World Population, AWP. Of course, the demographic distribution in the world should possibly resemble 1950 for the young/old mix.
Let us plan and attain this Adequate World Population, AWP, along the smoothest and fastest possible trajectory. Let us plan to have the per capita GDP increase even as the global GDP steadily falls below sustainable levels, say, below half of today’s global economy i.e., USD 40 trillion.
Refer to ‘Basis for confidence for the three measures to succeed’ in Chapter 4:
Earth’s natural environment has great resilience to recover health given a chance. This has been seen in recent times:
- Covid-19 showed us that a modest 25% reduction in the world economy is enough for the recovery of the health of the natural environmental
- Chernobyl experience has shown that 30 years’ time is adequate for recovery of the health of a local environment.
Surely an Adequate World Population, AWP of two billion people arrived at reasonably quickly shall go a long way towards a sustainable human civilization.
Chapter 12
Diversion of cultural momenta from destructive to restorative practices
- CO2 emission is important because it converts incoming solar radiation into heat. Since CO2 is airborne as a GHG, the heat, called Radiative Forcing, RF, gets added to the atmosphere. However, RF, is not the only source of anthropogenic heat in the biosphere.
- Subject to the Carnot cycle, all thermal power plants and nuclear power plants directly add heat to the environment.
- For example, both a 1000 MWe thermal or nuclear power plant reject the same 2000 MW (reject) heat to water bodies in their neighborhood.
- The narrative must include entropy, ΔS ≡ ΔQ/T .Life cycle thermal and entropy footprints on the environment shall help identify damaging technologies in the inception
- Curtail wasteful quality specifications. Remember Henry Ford and the ‘kingpin’ in Ford-T leading to down-sizing its specifications. We purchase vehicles and gadgets and most of us would never use all the features to provide which vast resources have been expended. Reduce features offered for all possible FMCGs.
- Punish planned obsolescence. Fix a minimum number of years of AMC service against the guarantee, replacement, and insurance paid by the supplier.
- Discourage personal transport and encourage public transport; each car costs 6 tons of CO2 to the environment at the sale point. < What’s the carbon footprint of … a new car? | Environment | The Guardian>
- Watch videos like (i) The Power of Big Oil Part One: Denial (PBS Frontline), (ii) New car graveyards, and (iii) Abandoned ghost cities. Consider the criminal wastage of valuable resources for which the environment and the individuals have paid the price of heat pollution, CO2 pollution, entropy pollution, and consequent disorders that threaten their children and grandchildren in another 30 years’ time…
- Clearly large forces, like massive awareness drives, etc., shall be required to divert large destructive practices (cultural momenta) from destructive to restorative practices.
<Please see Annex-FOUR>
Annexes ONE to FIVE follow:
Annex One
An Annual USD 20 trillion No-Cash-Transaction Awareness Drive
Part substantiation of the figure of an annual 20 trillion USD for Awareness Drive with no-cash-transactions and going beyond technical solutions.
Awareness Drive
Response of the human civilization need not be limited to costly technical solutions alone. The responses must now start at individual levels.
Awareness drive is a no-cash-transfer solution without any way adding to world GDP, hence, without any way adding to heat, entropy, and disorder of the environment.
- USD 9 trillion annually from 3 billion employed persons <Global employment figures 2021 | Statista>
3 billion @ 300 hours annually*10 USD per hour = 9 trillion USD annually - USD 1 trillion annually from 200+ million Students
200 million graduate students @ 300 hours annually*10 USD per hour = 0.6 trillion USD annually. Other students: say, 0.4 trillion USD annually. - USD 0.2 trillion annually from 60+ million Retired people
30 million men and 30 million women = 60 million persons *300 hours*10 USD per hour = 180 billion USD, say, 0.2 trillion USD annually.
We may expect much more contribution from these 60+ million retired people who are psychologically motivated and will have time on their hands to be spent meaningfully.
TOTAL: 10 trillion USD annually
With synergy and possible other multiplier effects, we may EXPECT: 20 trillion USD annually
Annex Two
Sources of data and calculations for individual responsibilities
- 0.4 metric tons of ice melt/USD spent in 2020; (same as saying, 1.0 tons of ice melts for 2.5 USD): <Ice Melt_: ttpstc.copernicus.orgarticles152 332021>
Note, this figure of 401 kg/$ , i.e., 0.4 tonne per USD is small compared with the quantity of ice that shall melt if we consider a significant portion of actual heat that is added to the oceans by way of RF (more, if we add AHF). - Per capita, 2020 CO2 emissions worldwide in the year 2020 was more than 4 tons (i.e., more than 12 kg/day) <ourworldindata.org>
- 2020, RF (Radiative Forcing) = 3.183 W/m2 https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html
1 year = 3,15,36,000 seconds
Earth surface = 5.1E+14 m2
Multiplying:
(3,15,36,000 seconds)*(5.1E+14 m2)*(3.183 W/m2) = 5.1E+22 joules
(Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent) HABE = 6.3E+13 joules <63 terajoules>
Dividing, the total worldwide RF = 624,387,884 HABEs (i.e., more than 600 million HABEs)
2020 World Population = 7,760,000,000 persons
<www.statista.com/statistics/805044/total-population-worldwide/>
Dividing again, the per capita worldwide RF = 0.1 HABEs
This amounts to a HABE per the average individual every 10 years
| Year | Ice Melt [11](Slater et al., 2021) | World GDP [7] (data worldbank: org, n.d.) | Superficial Ratio, Ice Melt |
| {1} | {2} | {3} | {4} = {2}/{3} |
| Year | trillion kg | trillion USS | kg/USS |
| 1995 | 1000 | 40.4 | 25 |
| 2000 | 5500 | 48.3 | 114 |
| 2005 | 10,300 | 56.5 | 182 |
| 2010 | 17,600 | 64.9 | 271 |
| 2015 | 21,700 | 75.2 | 289 |
| 2020 | 32,000 | 82.0 | 390 |
Annex Three
<Pre-requisite: College level maths>
Relating disorders to entropies mathematically
Basics
dS ≡ δQ/T
where Q is anthropogenic contributions from both AHF and RF
Scheme
- A practical scheme to relate various environmental disorders ΔDi to the entropies is ΔSj is: ΔDi = fi(ΔSj) or, rather, hopefully simply, ΔDi = λij ΔSj
This approach is similar to the practical approaches for- determining spring constants of different elastic materials in the form of f = kx ,
- specific heats in mCpdT or
- resistances of various electrical conductors in V = IR without necessarily delving into underlying physics as opposed to deriving ideal gas laws from statistical mechanics, an involved and time-consuming affair.
We may particularly explore simple relationships ΔDi = λij ΔSj to relate various disorders with relevant entropies using constant coefficients λij . This approach shall help manipulate data using linear algebra.
- Designate anthropogenic contributions to entropies ΔSi on the Earth as follows:
Consider an idealized spheroid (oblate) 3D grid by longitude (θ°), latitude (φ°), and height (z km) (or depth, -ve)
(REFER TO FIG 1) - We note that Δz = ± 10 km, is a small number compared with other Earth dimensions.
We may, for relatively smaller regions of the Earth, record data against the more familiar Cartesian coordinate system, with the origin of the system at the point of interest: Δx km (for longitude), Δy km for latitude, and Δz km for height (or depth, -ve):
(REFER TO FIG 2) - We may collect, assess and record data: Tθφz , ΔQθφz , ΔSθφz (or, Txyz, ΔQxyz, ΔSxyz) and various disorders Di in the biosphere
- Correlate disorders Di with relevant entropies using functions: Di = ΣjλijΔSj , hopefully, linear relationships; we may use the modern convention for summation on the dummy or repeated indices, avoid writing the Σj symbol, and write simply, Di = λijΔSj ; the ΔSj are identified with entropies in the list ΔSxyz using relations ΔSj = ∫Sxyz dxdydz
Illustrations
For illustration, consider several disorders span across different depths Δz1 = 0 to (-)0.3 km and (-)0.3 km to (-) 2 km of an ocean region of, say, Δx = 2000 m, Δy = 1000 m extent; we quantify entropies ΔS1 = ∫Sxyz dxdydz and ΔS2 = ∫Sxyz dxdydz for the specified depths over the area:
Or, consider, certain other disorders span across different adjacent regions on land as shown:
Or, consider, still, certain other disorders span across different adjacent regions on land as well as the atmosphere above:
We may look forward to relating a list of such disorders to relevant entropies using (hopefully) constant λij factors:
Simplifying Assumptions
We may explore the following simplifying assumptions without necessarily losing a great deal in accuracy:
- Biosphere as a quasi-adiabatic system as the changes from day-to-day or year-to-year may be neglected
- Ignore thermal expansions dV to render inexact differentials δQ as dQ, exact (which may possibly introduce some error where fluids, air or water, mix well)
- We may interchangeably use the subscripts θ, φ in place of x, y for modeling the entire globe.
Annex 4
Cultural Momentum: A Mathematical Approach
<Pre-requisite: College level maths>
For a start, a cultural momentum, Λk , may be defined as: Λk ≡ ∫(Σkλk )Nk dt
where culture means a particular culture k practiced by members of a community over a period extending from several decades to several millennia. Cultures have momenta just like flowing waters. Like, marriages, religious practices, greeting norms, etc.;
Nk is the number of adherents of culture k and λk is the average degree of personal adherence, over the entire population, say, on a scale of 1 to 10 .
It may be more practical to go by average values of λavg,k , practically observed by conducting polls. Now, we may write,
Λk ≡ λavg,k ∫Nk dt (1)
from t1 to t2 . Clearly λavg,k , or λk are susceptible to indoctrination by propaganda machinery including advertisements. Cultural forces, Fk , may be expressed in terms of cultural momenta as:
Fk = dΛk/dt (2)
Familiar classical mechanics concepts would apply. This concept of cultural momenta with associated concepts of cultural forces for shaping and for overcoming impedances needs to be developed for real-life applications to societies in the areas of history, marketing, social trends, etc.
ANNEX – 5
Part 1 of 2
Suggested activities<All calculations are in simple arithmetic>
- Learn and spread knowledge to the general public
- Law: Monotonous increase of entropy in closed systems
- Simple entropy formula with examples <S ≡ Q/T> Q in joules, T in Kelvin
(consider atmospheric temperature of 27 °C + 273 = 300 Kelvin) - Radiative Forcing (RF) and trend since the year 1750
- Anthropogenic Heat Forcing (AHF) trend since 1750
- Compare present global AHF/RF%
- List of environmental disorders
- Trends of various disorders since 1750
- Predictions of disorders up to 2050
- Predictions of disorders up to 2100
- What are the calorific value, CV, of jet fuels, diesel, petrol, and gas in kcal/kg?
- How much heat and entropy is added by various conferences on the environment from the burning of jet fuels every year?
- Have the actions of international bodies effective?
- Have the actions of national bodies effective?
- How much entropy is added to the area of your residence by industries, vehicles, and homes every year?
- Calculate heat from every source: fossil fuel + green energy sources
- What is GHG?
- A green source like nuclear energy contributes 3 times heat to the environment compared with the electricity generated. <Carnot cycle>
- What can you do as an individual, as a family to reduce the entropy in your area of residence?
- What disorders in your area of residence can disrupt your children’s life by 2050? Grandchildren’s life by 2100?
- Can your family somehow escape the trouble by 2050 if the rest of the world suffers? If you are very rich?
- What is the heat of the Hiroshima Atom Bomb? Let us call this quantity of heat HABE (Hiroshima Atom Bomb Equivalent)
- If we express the heat from Radiative Forcing (RF) in terms of HABE, how many HABE heat is raining upon the earth every second?
- What is the average contribution of RF by human beings in a life of the first 40 years expressed in HABE units?
- What is the average per capita consumption of energy per year?
- What is your personal consumption of energy per year?
- How many times is your energy consumption compared with the average per capita consumption of energy?
- Now, estimate your and your family’s annual contribution of heat from RF in terms of HABE.
- Since you individually have the power to destroy the world of your children and grandchildren, do you feel personally responsible to do something worthwhile about it?
- Repeat all the above calculations on RF with AHF for yourself and your family.
- Do your local leaders in public life, industries, and administration, understand the details as well as you do? Your children’s and grandchildren’s future depends on it.
- Assume, $ 0.4 , i.e,. 40 cents spent by you goes to melt a tonne of ice somewhere.
- Calculate your share of ice melted last year from your actual expenses.
- Calculate your family’s share of ice melted last year from your family’s expenses.
- Do you feel personal responsibility for the consequent disorders? Who else should share the responsibility with? Will you try to make all concerned understand?
- How much ice would have melted last year melt because of the marriage and birthday parties amongst families known to you? Can we economize the parties?
- How much ice would melt for manufacturing a warship? A warplane?
- How much ice would melt for conducting a war? Another world war?
- How much ice would melt for building a large mansion?
- Suggest a few more questions for the general public and engineers.
- ……
- Activities for the general public to reduce pollution in Local Heat Islands (LHI)
- Plant leafy, long-life trees, which grow large, in schools, etc.
- Entropy pollution figures: Set up physical and online scoreboards to report figures on trends of individual and total entropy pollution in your, and neighboring regions, states, and nations world apart from RF, AHF, CO2 ppm
- Conducting online discussions amongst clubs, peers, guilds, and communities
- Gift cards and logging gift hours of Awareness Drive: Set up physical and online scoreboards to log the gifted hours towards Awareness Drive
- Suggest a list of additional activities.
- Demand support from your local leaders in public life, industries, and administration to support your activities on priority. your children and grandchildren’s future depends on it.
- $100/- electricity saved
- $100/- fuel saved
- …
- …
This is a call for the greatest possible common good.
For your children and grandchildren.
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